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1、 The main factor affecting exchange rate fluctuations

  • US dollar index
    US Dollar Index®That is, USDX is an indicator that comprehensively reflects the US dollar's exchange rate in the international foreign exchange market, which is used to measure the exchange rate change of US dollars to a package of currencies.It measures the strength of the US dollar by calculating the comprehensive change of the US dollar currency to the selected package of currencies, which indirectly reflects the US export competitiveness and changes in import costs.
  • interest rate
    That is, the cost of use of funds, and countries have frequently used interest rate leverage to implement macro -control. The interest rate policy has become the main means for central banks to regulate monetary supply and demand for central banks in various countries. The interest rate policy is increasingly important in the status of the central bank's monetary policy.The country increases interest rates, rising exchange rates; reduced interest rates, and exchange rates decrease.For example, under normal circumstances, the U.S. interest rates fall, and the trend of the US dollar is weak; US interest rates rose and US dollar trend preferences.
  • Central bank asset purchase scale
    Refers to the central banks of various countries in order to stabilize the target of prices in advance, and determine the benchmark interest rates through regular meetings, and release it once a month.For example, the British Bank of the British (BOE) assets below, the British benchmark interest rate is the repurchase interest rate.(Data source: Bank of England)
    The rise and fall of interest rates reflect the quality of the economy.During the economic development period, interest rate hikes meant rapid economic growth, high investment returns, and beneficial to the pound.
  • Monetary policy explanation of key central banks
    Such as the Federal Reserve Best Conference, the Bank of Japan's interest rate resolution, the European Central Bank interest rate resolution, etc.
  • Inflation rate
    Inflation means the rise in domestic price levels. When the prices of most commodities and labor in the economy have risen for a period of time, the economy is called inflation. Because the price is the currency performance of the value of a country, inflation also means that the value of the country's currency representatives decreases.In the case where the domestic and foreign commodity markets are closely linked to each other, generally, inflation and rising domestic prices will cause reduction of export goods and increase imported goods, thereby affecting the supply and demand relationship in the foreign exchange market, which leads to the fluctuation of the exchange rate fluctuation in the country in the country.EssenceAt the same time, the decline in internal value of a country's currency will certainly affect its external value, weaken the country's currency's credit position in the international market. People will expect the exchange rate of the country's currency to become weak due to inflation.The transformation of national currencies into other currencies leads to a decline in exchange rates.According to the theory of price law and purchasing power, when the inflation rate of one country is higher than the inflation rate of another country, the value represented by the country's currency is decreased compared to the currency of another country, and the country's currency exchange rate willdecline.Conversely, it will rise.
  • International income and expenditure
    The definition of international currency funds for international revenue and expenditure is that international revenue and expenditure is a statistical report, and the system records the transactions between economic entities and other parts of the world within a certain period of time.With the development of international economic transactions, the narrow international revenue and expenditure refers to the foreign exchange income and expenditure of one country for a certain period of time. The broad international revenue and expenditure refers to the sum of the currency value of all international economic transactions in one country within a certain period of time.
    The impact of continuous, large -scale international revenue and expenditure deficit on a country's economy is the following aspects:
    1) Not conducive to foreign economic exchanges.Countries with continuous international revenue and expenditure will increase demand for foreign exchange, and the supply of foreign exchange is insufficient, which will promote the rise in foreign exchange exchange rates, the depreciation of the local currency, and the decrease in the international status of the local currency.Come is not good at affecting.
    2、 If a country is in a state of deficit for a long time, it will not only seriously consume the reserve assets of a country, affect its financial strength, but also reduce the debt capacity of the country.With financial strength and losing the reputation in international.For example, the international debt crisis that broke out in the early 1980s is largely due to long -term international revenue and expenditure deficit in debt countries, and it does not have sufficient debt repayment capacity.Continuous, large -scale international revenue and expenditure surplus will also have an adverse effect on the economy of a country. The specific manifestation is:
    1) The continuous surplus will increase the foreign currency funds held by a country, or the situation of snapping domestic currency in the international financial market, which will inevitably increase the demand for the country. Due to the role of market laws, the country's currency is pairedThe exchange rate of foreign currencies will rise, which is not conducive to the export of domestic goods and has a adverse effect on the growth of the country's economy.
    2) The continuous surplus will cause increased inflation pressure for a country.Because if the international trade surplus, it means that a large number of domestic products are used for exports, which may lead to shortage of domestic market goods supply and bring pressure on inflation.In addition, exporting companies will sell a large number of foreign exchange exchange for the purchase of export products to increase the amount of currency investment in the domestic market and bring inflation pressure.If the capital project is surplus and a large amount of capital flows, the government must put on the country's currency to buy these foreign exchange, which will also increase the country's currency circulation and bring inflation pressure.
    3) The continuous surplus of the international income and expenditure of one country can easily cause international friction, not conducive to the development of international economic relations, because the emergence of an international income and expenditure in one country also means that some other countries in the world have a deficit in international revenue and expenditure due to their surplus, which affects these.The economic development of the country, they require a surplus country to adjust the domestic policy to regulate excessive surplus, which will inevitably lead to international friction.
  • Regular account
    Frequent accounts (Current ACCOUNT is also called regular projects.) The main component of the country's international revenue and expenditure mainly includes the trade and expenditure of commodities, that is, the import and export of formal goods, and the service trade revenue and expenditure, that is, the exchanges of various services such as tourism, banking and insurance.Frequent accounts do not include the flow of long -term loan and investment, which are projects on capital accounts.At the same time, it also refers to projects that are often incurred in economic transactions in the country and foreign countries. They are the most important projects in the balance of payments, including foreign trade revenue and expenditure, non -trade exchanges and unilateral transfer of income and expenditure.Frequent account surplus(surplus)Increase the net foreign capital with the corresponding amount of a country; the frequent account deficit(deficit)It is just the opposite.

For the following concepts, see the fundamental analysis of foreign exchange in [Foreign Exchange Science]

  • GDP
  • unemployment rate
  • Consumer confidence index
  • Manufacturing index
  • New House Construction License
  • Purchasing manager index
  • Retail sales
  • Industrial order

2、 The relationship between fundamentals and technical aspects

  • Fundamentals (stocks): By studying factors such as macroeconomic and political situation, industry, company financial statements, and company management levels, discovered The inherent value of the transaction target is compared with market value.
  • Technical aspect: By studying the direction of price fluctuations by studying technical indicators such as wave theory, trend lines, K -line forms, and moving average, and then adopting corresponding strategies.
  • The same is the same: the fundamental purpose is to discover the direction (trend) of price fluctuations.
  • The differences between the two: the factors behind fundamental research affecting price fluctuations, including politics, economy, industry, and company aspects; technical analysis only studies the price itself through various tools.The technical faction directly ignores it.
  • The macro fundamentals determine the general trend, but the price leads to the fundamentals, especially the short -term economic indicators:
    a. By analyzing macro fundamentals, long -term transactions can be done.
    b. By analyzing the macro fundamentals, the thinking of the short -term single in the daily day must be wrong.
    c. After the short -term economic indicators are announced, it is not reliable to do transactions according to the laws of economics
    d. Economic indicators provide kinetic energy for the volatility within the daily daily, and the kinetic energy provided by different indicators is different.

3、 Technical indicator application

  • Technical indicators are based on certain mathematical statistical methods, and use some complex computing formulas to determine the quantitative analysis method of exchange rate trend.There are mainly momentum indicators, relative strength indexes, random indexes, etc.
    Technical indicators statistical label
    Price and trading volume
  • The transaction volume usually contains the number of transactions and the amount of transaction, and the domestic stock market usually refers to the transaction amount.
    The use of transaction volume (VOL): 1. The upward trend continues; 2. When the key position breakthroughs
  • Special in the foreign exchange market turnover: Valuable and countless
  • Summary of technical indicators:
    Conclusion 1: The indicator is not the more complicated, the better, the closer the reference, the stronger the reference.!
    Conclusion 2: The trend is fundamental, and the focus of the indicator should be judged in the trend, not the sale point.
    Conclusion 3: The more indicators are reference, the greater the operation difficulty and the lower the grasp.
    Conclusion 4: The indicators must be contained in a relatively mature system and cannot be used alone.

4、 In -depth study of trends

Eleven laws of departure
a. Daily volatility leave method

b. Brake departure method

c. Symmetrical leisure

d. Wulang leave method

e. Breaking the trend line leaving the field method

f. Hours change K leave method

g. Wandering section evacuation field method

h. Band expansion leisure method

i. Our integer passage leisure method

j. Early node departure method

k. Depart from the field

5、 High probability

The high probability trading system breaks the ideas and methods of traditional foreign exchange transaction analysis, and has a different approach -not researching the moving average, weakening the fundamental use of fundamentals, and does not draw a complex technical indicator of the trend line, and even does not even look at the previous market.Based on the principles, critical point principles, and wave principles, starting the opening price as the starting point, the theory of wave theory as the framework, the breakthrough principle is supplemented, the time is the screening conditions, and the time to withstand the risk to withstandPutting and entering the market, simplify the analysis time, strictly grasp the risk control, and let investors experience the charm of transactions.Want to experience"High probability"Is it fine, accurate, and stable?Hurry upCXM Direct LLCTrading training.

Trading training

1. Online live transaction training

CXM Direct LLCAnalyst guest "First Finance • The global exchange market "connecting program, regularly interpret market conditions and news events for Huiyou.Provide 3 at the same time-5 days of technical training, through guiding customer transaction methods and mentality control, transform intention to customers and increase survival rates.

2. Offline salon training

In different cities to organize financial lectures and other offline lecture activities, provide platforms for faculty of the platform, and complete customer development, classification, group, and transformation work.

3. Promise to protect the capital

3-In 5 working days, analysts have accumulated successful trading methods for many years to carry out on -site orders to teach strategies, skills, methods, increase the survival rate of existing customers, and increase the reputation and influence of agency companies.

Operating management

1. Marketing training

1) Selection of the market area -screening and setting of customer groups: terminal, channel;
2) mission target:
a. Each person invites the number of salons per week
b. ABC Customer Customer New Number
3) Marketing skills: different development methods of different customers and different business types, electrical sales, online sales, offline, etc.;
4) BC class customer conversion method
5) Business development mode output:
a. terminal
b. Online research, offline development, including early publicity, planning, process, materials, and later media promotion
6) Talent output: focus on preliminary support, employee internal training, lower -level agent development model

2. Brand packaging and promotion

1) Online: Local financial media interview the company, brand upgrade; brand upgrade;
2) Offline: By establishing a public account or packaging, marketing and promotion activities are carried out from the media

3. Customer maintenance

1) Provide or recommend a diversified and superb technical level strategy services, community transaction services, shouting services, hanging single trading services, EA and other for customers to choose from;
2) Later transformation follow -up
3) Market discount event
4) Professionals have been settled for a long time, and the workflows of the company's workflow, plan planning, and incurable diseases.

4. Company structure and management system

1) Organizational structure: Determine the division of the company's department and hierarchical relationship management
2) Job Responsibilities: Subdivided posts, clarify responsibilities and authority
3) Promotion system: a complete promotion system, the position of the post is large, and the fresh blood is continuously supplemented
4) Professional internal talent training, introduction of external talents: cooperate with well -known consulting companies such as Deloitte and other system training to conduct systematic training to establish talent reserve libraries;
5) Performance management: professional assessment of employees' performance, scientific assessment, promoting benign competition, and enhancing team cohesion
6) Salary management: Clarify the salary structure of each position

5. Comprehensive training of employee professional quality

1) Business procedure
2) Professional knowledge training
3) Customer service professional training

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